格雷厄姆·埃里森(Graham Allison)教授是哈佛大學肯尼迪政府學院首任院長,作為現代肯尼迪政府學院的“創始院長“,該學院從1977年至1989年間增長了20倍,從一個不明確的小型項目,成為一所重要的公共政策和政府專業學院。格雷厄姆·埃里森的著作《註定一戰:美國和中國能逃避修昔底德陷阱嗎?》(Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?)於2017年5月由霍頓米夫林出版公司出版後迅速成為暢銷書。

△ 2018年5月26日,哈佛大學肯尼迪政府學院首任院長格雷厄姆·埃里森教授在復旦大學主辦的“上海論壇”上發表演講。

格雷厄姆·埃里森多次到訪中國,對中國的發展和崛起有着深入的研究,並一直致力於探討和解決中美之間如何避免修昔底德陷阱。下面,是格雷厄姆·埃里森教授2018年9月在TED上的演講視頻和雙語對照全文,對於美國人眼中的中國崛起究竟是什麼樣的問題,讓我們一起來聆聽他的獨到見解:

▽ 點擊觀看視頻

只有那些拒絕學習歷史的人,

會被迫重蹈歷史的覆轍!

So, let me thank you for the opportunity to talk about the biggest international story of your professional lifetime, which is also the most important international challenge the world will face for as far as the eye can see.

首先我想感謝能有這個機會, 來討論你們職業生涯中最大的國際話題,同時也是眾所周知,最重要的,全世界正面臨的國際性挑戰。

The story, of course, is the rise of China. Never before have so many people risen so far so fast, on so many different dimensions. The challenge is the impact of China’s rise — the discombobulation this will cause the Unites States and the international order, of which the US has been the principal architect and guardian. The past 100 years have been what historians now call an “American Century.” Americans have become accustomed to their place at the top of every pecking order. So the very idea of another country that could be as big and strong as the US — or bigger — strikes many Americans as an assault on who they are.

這個話題,毋庸置疑,便是中國的崛起。在此之前從未有如此眾多的人,在如此眾多的方面,有着如此飛速地進步。隨之而來的挑戰在於中國崛起所帶來的影響–對美國以及國際秩序,所產生的混亂,而美國一直是國際秩序的首要建造者和守衛者。歷史學家們將過去的100年稱為“美國的世紀”。美國人對自己在各方面所處的頂尖地位,早已習以為常。 因此,若是有另一個 如同美國一樣,力量強大的大國–甚至更大的國家存在。這將對美國人的自我認知造成威脅。

For perspective on what we’re now seeing in this rivalry, it’s useful to locate it on the larger map of history. The past 500 years have seen 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power. Twelve of those ended in war. So just in November, we’ll all pause to mark the 100th anniversary of the final day of a war that became so encompassing, that it required historians to create an entirely new category: world war. So, on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month in 1918, the guns of World War I fell silent, but 20 million individuals lay dead.

對這場正在進行的競爭應該採取什麼視角,把眼光放大至歷史中會很有用。過去500年發生過的16案例,展現崛起力量威脅掌權力量,甚至取而代之。其中12件案例最終導致戰爭。剛剛過去的11月,我們紀念了那場100周年的戰爭。這場戰爭影響之廣,以致歷史學家創造了一個 新的類別:世界大戰。在1918年的第11個月的,第11天中的第11個小時,第一次世界大戰的槍聲開始沉寂,但是兩千萬人早已在戰爭中喪生。

I know that this is a sophisticated audience, so you know about the rise of China. I’m going to focus, therefore, on the impact of China’s rise, on the US, on the international order and on the prospects for war and peace. But having taught at Harvard over many years, I’ve learned that from time to time, it’s useful to take a short pause, just to make sure we’re all on the same page. The way I do this is, I call a time-out, I give students a pop quiz — ungraded, of course. So, let’s try this. Time-out, pop quiz.

我相信在座各位都很熟悉,所以你們應該對中國的崛起有所了解。因此,我接下來想着重討論中國崛起所帶來的影響,對於美國,對於國際秩序,對於戰爭與和平方面所帶來的影響。我在哈佛教書多年的經驗告訴我,偶爾有個短暫間隙會很有效,來確認我們的認知是否同步。我將我的檢驗方式稱為“暫停休息“,我給學生們提及測驗當然了,是不記分的。所以我們也試試吧,突擊小測驗。

Question: forty years ago, 1978, China sets out on its march to the market. At that point, what percentage of China’s one billion citizens were struggling to survive on less than two dollars a day? Take a guess — 25 percent? Fifty? Seventy-five? Ninety. What do you think? Ninety. Nine out of every 10 on less than two dollars a day. Twenty eighteen, 40 years later. What about the numbers? What’s your bet? Take a look. Fewer than one in 100 today. And China’s president has promised that within the next three years, those last tens of millions will have been raised up above that threshold. So it’s a miracle, actually, in our lifetime. Hard to believe. But brute facts are even harder to ignore. A nation that didn’t even appear on any of the international league tables 25 years ago has soared, to rival — and in some areas, surpass — the United States.

提問:四十年前,1978年,中國向市場進軍。那時的中國,十億人口中有多少比例 掙扎在每天僅花2美刀的水平線上呢? 

猜一下–25%? 50%? 75%? 是90%。你們怎麼看? 90%。每十人中有九人,每天的花銷不到2美刀。

 2018年,40年之後, 這個數字變成多少了呢?

你們猜是多少? 了解一下,如今每一百人中不到一人。中國還承諾在未來三年里, 最後的那一千萬人口,會擺脫那個臨界值。因此這可以說是我們有生之年中的一個奇蹟。難以置信。 

然而事實無法忽視。一個在25年前從未出現在任何國際會議上的國家,已經崛起,開始去競爭–並且在一些方面超越了美國。

Thus, the challenge that will shape our world: a seemingly unstoppable rising China accelerating towards an apparently immovable ruling US, on course for what could be the grandest collision in history. To help us get our minds around this challenge, I’m going to introduce you to a great thinker, I’m going to present a big idea, and I’m going to pose a most consequential question. The great thinker is Thucydides. Now, I know his name is a mouthful, and some people have trouble pronouncing it. So, let’s do it, one, two, three, together: Thucydides. One more time: Thucydides.

因此,改變世界的挑戰在於:貌似無法阻擋的崛起的中國,加速朝着明顯不動的佔據統治地位的美國走去。這可以說是歷史上 最大的碰撞交鋒。為了幫助大家理解這個挑戰, 我要向大家介紹一位偉大的思想家。我要在演講中展示一個宏大的想法,並由此提出 最重要的問題。這位思想家名為修昔底德。我知道他的名字很繞口,有些人不太清楚如何發音。所以我們練習一遍, 一,二,三,一起:修昔底德。再一次:修昔底德。

So who was Thucydides? He was the father and founder of history. He wrote the first-ever history book. It’s titled “The History of the Peloponnesian War,” about the war in Greece, 2500 years ago. So if nothing else today, you can tweet your friends, “I met a great thinker. And I can even pronounce his name: Thucydides.” So, about this war that destroyed classical Greece, Thucydides wrote famously: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made the war inevitable.” So the rise of one and the reaction of the other create a toxic cocktail of pride, arrogance, paranoia, that drug them both to war.

誰是修昔底德? 他是歷史學之父,歷史學的創立者,他撰寫了第一本歷史書。這本書名為 《伯羅奔尼撒戰爭史》。它講的是2500年前發生在希臘的戰爭,所以如果今天什麼都沒印象你可以給朋友發推特說:”我今天認識了一位偉大的思想家,我甚至可以念他的名字:修昔底德”。關於這場摧毀了古希臘的戰爭,修昔底德寫下了一句著名評論: “正是雅典勢力的崛起和斯巴達因此而逐漸產生的恐懼,使得這場戰爭不可避免”。所以一方勢力的崛起,以及另一方所做的反應,製造了飽含驕傲,傲慢,偏執的有毒雞尾酒,這毒藥讓兩者都上了戰場。

Which brings me to the big idea: Thucydides’s Trap. “Thucydides’s Trap” is a term I coined several years ago, to make vivid Thucydides’s insight. Thucydides’s Trap is the dangerous dynamic that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, like Athens — or Germany 100 years ago, or China today — and their impact on Sparta, or Great Britain 100 years ago, or the US today. As Henry Kissinger has said, once you get this idea, this concept of Thucydides’s Trap in your head, it will provide a lens for helping you look through the news and noise of the day to understand what’s actually going on.

而這將我引向一個宏大的想法:修昔底德的陷阱。“修昔底德的陷阱”是我幾年前發明的詞, 以便生動地闡述修昔底德的見解。“修昔底德的陷阱“指的是當新興力量,威脅到掌權勢力時產生的危險動態, 如雅典– 如100年前的德國,又如如今的中國– 和它們對斯巴達的影響,如100年前的大英帝國又如今對美國造成的影響。像亨利·基辛格所說,一旦你產生這個想法,腦海中有了“修昔底德的陷阱”,它將給你提供–透過現今的新聞與喧囂,並理解事態的實際進展的稜鏡。

So, to the most consequential question about our world today: Are we going to follow in the footsteps of history? Or can we, through a combination of imagination and common sense and courage find a way to manage this rivalry without a war nobody wants, and everybody knows would be catastrophic? Give me five minutes to unpack this, and later this afternoon, when the next news story pops up for you about China doing this, or the US reacting like that, you will be able to have a better understanding of what’s going on and even to explain it to your friends.

所以,當下對於全世界來說,最重要的問題是:我們將步入歷史的後塵嗎?或者我們可以通過融合想象力和常識,以及勇氣,來尋找到對付這種競爭關係的解決途徑,而不引發任何人都不期待,且只會帶來災難的戰爭嗎?讓我花5分鐘來解釋,等你下午接收到一條新聞消息,報道中國這麼做,或者美國那樣應對時,你就會對事情進展有更深的理解,甚至可以跟朋友做一番解釋。

So as we saw with this flipping the pyramid of poverty, China has actually soared. It’s meteoric. Former Czech president, Vaclav Havel, I think, put it best. He said, “All this has happened so fast, we haven’t yet had time to be astonished.”

如同我們所看到的這個貧窮倒金字塔一樣,中國確實在崛起。如同流星般快速向前。我認為前任捷克總統瓦茨拉夫·哈維爾的描述很準確。他說:“這一切發生得太快了,我們甚至還來不及去驚訝。” 

To remind myself how astonished I should be, I occasionally look out the window in my office in Cambridge at this bridge, which goes across the Charles River, between the Kennedy School and Harvard Business School. In 2012, the State of Massachusetts said they were going to renovate this bridge, and it would take two years. In 2014, they said it wasn’t finished. In 2015, they said it would take one more year. In 2016, they said it’s not finished, we’re not going to tell you when it’s going to be finished. Finally, last year, it was finished — three times over budget.

為了提醒我自己應該有多驚訝,我坐在自己在劍橋的辦公室, 偶爾會朝窗外望去這座橫跨查爾斯河的橋,它處於哈佛的肯尼迪政府學院和商學院之間。2012年,馬薩諸塞州宣布他們將翻新這座橋,預計將花費兩年時間。 可到了2014年還沒竣工。2015年時,他們說要再一年。到了2016年他們又說未能竣工,我不是打算告訴大家它什麼時候能竣工。最終,這項工程在去年竣工–實際花費金額是預算的三倍。

Now, compare this to a similar bridge that I drove across last month in Beijing. It’s called the Sanyuan Bridge. In 2015, the Chinese decided they wanted to renovate that bridge. It actually has twice as many lanes of traffic. How long did it take for them to complete the project? Twenty fifteen, what do you bet? Take a guess — OK, three — Take a look.

現在,把這架橋和我上月在北京曾駕駛穿過的一座橋做對比。這座橋叫三元橋。2015年時中國人決定翻新這座橋。這座橋的交通車道數是劍橋的兩倍。中國人花了多久完成這項工程呢? 2015年,你們猜是花了多久? 猜一下–好,三(年)我們看看這段錄像吧。

The answer is 43 hours.

答案是43小時。

Now, of course, that couldn’t happen in New York.

當然,這種事不可能發生在紐約。

Behind this speed in execution is a purpose-driven leader and a government that works. The most ambitious and most competent leader on the international stage today is Chinese President. And he’s made no secret about what he wants. As he said when he became president six years ago, his goal is to make China great again —

在這執行速度的背後是由以目標驅動行動的領導者,和一個干實事的政府。在如今的國際舞台上最有雄心和最有競爭力的領導者。他從不掩飾自己想得到什麼。如同他六年前當選時所說。他的目標就是要讓中國再次變得偉大—

a banner he raised long before Donald Trump picked up a version of this. To that end, Xi has announced specific targets for specific dates: 2025, 2035, 2049.

這個口號早在特朗普提出類似的話前就已經出現了。那時還宣布了特定日期應完成的特定目標:2025年,2035年,2049年。

By 2025, China means to be the dominant power in the major market in 10 leading technologies, including driverless cars, robots, artificial intelligence, quantum computing. By 2035, China means to be the innovation leader across all the advanced technologies. And by 2049, which is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic, China means to be unambiguously number one, including, an army that he calls “Fight and Win.” So these are audacious goals, but as you can see, China is already well on its way to these objectives. And we should remember how fast our world is changing. Thirty years ago, the World Wide Web had not yet even been invented. Who will feel the impact of this rise of China most directly? Obviously, the current number one. As China gets bigger and stronger and richer, technologically more advanced, it will inevitably bump up against American positions and prerogatives.

到2025年時,中國要成為10個先進科技領域,主要市場中的主導力量,這其中包括 無人駕駛汽車,機器人,人工智能和量子計算。到2035年時,中國要成為所有先進科技領域中最具創新力的領導者。並且到2049年,中華人民共和國,成立100周年之際,中國要成為無可爭議的第一,其中包括,一支他稱為“打得贏”的軍隊。這些都是大膽的目標,但是大家都知道,中國在朝着目標的路上,一路走得穩紮穩打。我們還需提醒自己這個世界的變化之快。 三十年前,萬維網還沒出現。有誰能直觀地感受到中國崛起的影響力呢? 答案顯而易見的,便是當今的第一大國。隨着中國變得愈發強大和富有,科技變得更加先進,中國將註定要對美國的地位和特權產生威脅。

Now, for red-blooded Americans — and especially for red-necked Americans like me; I’m from North Carolina — there’s something wrong with this picture. The USA means number one, that’s who we are. But again, to repeat: brute facts are hard to ignore. Four years ago, Senator John McCain asked me to testify about this to his Senate Armed Services Committee. And I made for them a chart that you can see, that said, compare the US and China to kids on opposite ends of a seesaw on a playground, each represented by the size of their economy. As late as 2004, China was just half our size. By 2014, its GDP was equal to ours. And on the current trajectory, by 2024, it will be half again larger. The consequences of this tectonic change will be felt everywhere.

對於那些熱血沸騰的美國人來說——尤其是像我一樣的美國鄉巴佬–我來自北卡羅萊納州,這張宏大的藍圖裡有點不對勁。美國就是“第一”的代名詞,這點毋庸置疑,但是還需再次強調:我們無法忽視殘忍的事實。四年前,參議員約翰·麥凱恩想讓我,向參議院軍事委員會闡明這個事實。我便給他們繪製了一張表,如大家所見,在這個表中,我把中美對比:比喻成在操場上玩蹺蹺板的兩個小孩子,尺寸大小由兩國的經濟規模決定。2004年時,中國的規模僅佔美國的一半。到了2014年,中國的GDP值和美國一樣了。照此形勢發展,到2024年時中國的規模會變得比美國大一半。這個構造層面的改變結果體現在方方面面。

For example, in the current trade conflict, China is already the number one trading partner of all the major Asian countries. Which brings us back to our Greek historian. Harvard’s “Thucydides’s Trap Case File” has reviewed the last 500 years of history and found 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power. Twelve of these ended in war. And the tragedy of this is that in very few of these did either of the protagonists want a war; few of these wars were initiated by either the rising power or the ruling power.

舉個例子,在如今的貿易衝突中,中國已經成為了所有亞洲主要國家的,第一大貿易夥伴。 這個事實又把我們帶回了修昔底德的理論。哈佛大學的“修昔底德案例文檔”回顧了前500年里的歷史,並發現16個檔案里出現了,崛起力量威脅掌權力量的事件。這其中12個案例以戰爭結束。最為悲劇的是,很少有主角,想要發動戰爭;其中只有幾場戰爭是由崛起力量,或掌權力量發起的。 

So how does this work? What happens is, a third party’s provocation forces one or the other to react, and that sets in motion a spiral, which drags the two somewhere they don’t want to go. If that seems crazy, it is. But it’s life. Remember World War I. The provocation in that case was the assassination of a second-level figure, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which then led the Austro-Hungarian emperor to issue an ultimatum to Serbia, they dragged in the various allies, within two months, all of Europe was at war.

事情是如何進展的?實際上,第三方勢力的挑釁,造成了某一方勢力的躁動,而這便形成了一個漩渦,把這兩方勢力拽進了未曾想到達的地步。這聽起來有點瘋狂,確實是這樣的。但現實如此。回想一下 世界第一次大戰。那場戰爭的導火索,便是矛頭指向二級人物,弗朗茨·斐迪南大公的刺殺行動,這導致了奧匈帝國的皇帝,下達對塞爾維亞的最後通牒,隨後形成了多方勢力的盟軍,兩個月不到,全歐洲便陷入戰爭。

So imagine if Thucydides were watching planet Earth today. What would he say? Could he find a more appropriate leading man for the ruling power than Donald J Trump?

想象一下修昔底德觀望如今的地球形勢。他會發表什麼看法?他會找到一個比特朗普更合適,掌權力量的領導者嗎?

So finally, we conclude again with the most consequential question, the question that will have the gravest consequences for the rest of our lives: Are Americans and Chinese going to let the forces of history drive us to a war that would be catastrophic for both? Or can we summon the imagination and courage to find a way to survive together, to share the leadership in the 21st century, or,  to create a new form of great power relations?

最後,我們再以最重要的問題總結,這個問題對我們的餘生,都具有重大意義:美國人和中國人難道就打算讓歷史的車輪,載着他們駛向對任何人都沒好處的災難性戰爭嗎? 又或,我們能征服想象力和勇氣,尋找一條共生之路,分享21世紀的領導權力,或者就如所說,創造一種新形式的權力聯盟嗎?

That’s the issue I’ve been pursuing passionately for the last two years. I’ve had the opportunity to talk and, indeed, to listen to leaders of all the relevant governments — Beijing, Washington, Seoul, Tokyo — and to thought leaders across the spectrum of both the arts and business. I wish I had more to report. The good news is that leaders are increasingly aware of this Thucydidean dynamic and the dangers that it poses. The bad news is that nobody has a feasible plan for escaping history as usual.

這個話題是我近兩年來,一直在熱切思考的。我曾有機會去和所有相關政府–北京,華盛頓,首爾,東京–討論與傾聽,並從藝術和商業範圍判斷這些領導者。我不方便透露更多。好消息是,這些領導者對於修昔底德的理論,以及其可能造成的危險,開始逐漸重視起來。壞消息是,目前沒有人制定出可行的方案,來逃出歷史的怪圈。

So it’s clear to me that we need some ideas outside the box of conventional statecraft — indeed, from another page or another space — which is what brings me to TED today and which brings me to a request. This audience includes many of the most creative minds on the planet, who get up in the morning and think not only about how to manage the world we have, but how to create worlds that should be. So I’m hopeful that as this sinks in and as you reflect on it, some of you are going to have some bold ideas, actually some wild ideas, that when we find, will make a difference in this space. And just to remind you if you do, this won’t be the first time.

所以我很清楚我們需要,在常規之外尋找些想法–實際上,是從另一角度或者另一空間–這便成為了我今天來TED的緣由,也促使我發出請求。在座的觀眾中囊括了 這個星球上最富創造力的大腦,你們會早上起來時思索,不局限於關於如何管理這個世界的問題,也去思考該如何創造一個應有的世界。以我希望隨着大家思考得越深入,在座的人里可能,會產生些些大膽的甚至瘋狂的想法。而當這些想法被發現時,便會給這個世界帶來些不同。提醒一下,如果你想嘗試的話,這並不是歷史上的首次嘗試。

Let me remind you of what happened right after World War II. A remarkable group of Americans and Europeans and others, not just from government, but from the world of culture and business, engaged in a collective surge of imagination. And what they imagined and what they created was a new international order, the order that’s allowed you and me to live our lives, all of our lives, without great power war and with more prosperity than was ever seen before on the planet. So, a remarkable story. Interestingly, every pillar of this project that produced these results, when first proposed, was rejected by the foreign policy establishment as naive or unrealistic.

我再來講述一下第二次世界大戰後發生的事吧。一個由美國人,歐洲人和其他地區的人 組成的傑出組織,其中不僅有擁有政府工作背景的成員,還有來自文化界和商界的成員。他們把自己投入進想象力集合工程。這些人所想象和創造的,是新的國際秩序,一個讓你、我、所有人都擁有自己的生活,讓大規模戰爭消失殆盡,並帶來前所未有的繁榮的秩序。 這是一段很傑出的事迹。有趣的是,這個項目中的每一環,在最開始公布的時候,被對外政策體制以幼稚和不現實為由拒絕。

My favorite is the Marshall Plan. After World War II, Americans felt exhausted. They had demobilized 10 million troops, they were focused on an urgent domestic agenda. But as people began to appreciate how devastated Europe was and how aggressive Soviet communism was, Americans eventually decided to tax themselves a percent and a half of GDP every year for four years and send that money to Europe to help reconstruct these countries, including Germany and Italy, whose troops had just been killing Americans. Amazing. This also created the United Nations. Amazing. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights. The World Bank. NATO. All of these elements of an order for peace and prosperity. So, in a word, what we need to do is do it again. And I think now we need a surge of imagination, creativity, informed by history, for, as the philosopher Santayana reminded us, in the end, only those who refuse to study history are condemned to repeat it.

我最欣賞的是馬歇爾計劃。第二次世界大戰結束後,美國已精疲力竭。它們遣散了一千萬支軍隊,並把精力放在 緊急國內議程中。但當人們開始意識到歐洲是怎麼滿目瘡痍 以及蘇聯共產主義如何強勢時,美國人最後決定在四年內向人民徵收佔GDP 1.5%的稅金,並把這些錢送至歐洲協助重建,包括德國和意大利,這些美國昔日的敵軍。令人驚嘆。 這件事也促使了聯合國的建立。令人驚嘆。世界人權宣言。世界銀行。北大西洋公約組織。所有這些都是這個以和平繁榮為目的的秩序的產物。

總之,我們所需的是重新再做一遍。並且我認為現在我們需要想象力和創造力的迸發,前事不忘後事之師,因為哲學家桑塔耶拿告誡我們,最後,只有那些拒絕學習歷史的人,會被迫重蹈歷史的覆轍。 

Thank you.

謝謝大家。